The National Retail Federation said on March 24 that total U.S. Easter spending is expected to reach $24.9 billion in 2026, setting a new record. On a per-person basis, shoppers are expected to spend $195.59, also a record and above the previous high of $192.01 in 2023. NRF said the forecast was based on its annual survey conducted with Prosper Insights & Analytics.
According to the survey, 80% of consumers plan to celebrate Easter this year. NRF Chief Economist and Executive Director of Research Mark Mathews said that even with economic uncertainty still on consumers’ minds, holiday celebrations remain important for families. In other words, Easter demand appears resilient, with consumers still willing to spend on seasonal products and experiences.
In category terms, candy is the most widely purchased Easter item, with 92% of consumers saying they plan to buy sweets. Other major categories include food (90%), gifts (64%), decorations (53%) and clothing (51%). By total dollars, however, food leads spending at $7.5 billion, followed by gifts at $3.9 billion, clothing at $3.7 billion, candy at $3.5 billion, and flowers at $2.2 billion.
NRF also found that tradition is the biggest driver of Easter shopping, cited by 58% of consumers. That was followed by sales and promotions (36%), shopping with family and friends (30%), store displays and decorations (27%), and exclusive or seasonal products (27%). The findings suggest that Easter shopping is not driven by price alone. Emotional value, seasonal appeal and in-store experience still play an important role.
As for where consumers plan to shop, discount stores remain the top destination at 55%, followed by department stores at 42% and online at 34%. Even among people who do not plan to celebrate Easter, more than half still expect to shop Easter-related sales, especially in categories such as candy, food and clothing. The survey covered 7,845 U.S. adult consumers and was conducted from March 2 to March 11, 2026, with a margin of error of plus or minus 1.1 percentage points.
Brief analysis
For the confectionery market, the NRF data points to solid end-market demand during the Easter peak season. The strongest signal is that candy has the highest purchase participation rate of any Easter category. That supports the view that seasonal sweets remain a core part of the holiday shopping basket. Still, it is worth noting that NRF tracks “candy” as a broad category, not chocolate alone, so any conclusion about chocolate specifically should be treated as an industry inference rather than a direct NRF finding.
A second takeaway is that the market looks strong, but still promotion-sensitive. Sales and promotions were the second most important purchase driver after tradition, and discount stores ranked as the top shopping channel. That suggests brands can still expect healthy Easter demand, but price positioning, seasonal merchandising and retail execution will matter a lot.
For suppliers linked to Easter retail programs, including confectionery packaging and seasonal gift packaging, the data is also constructive. High participation in candy, gifts and decorations indicates that demand is not limited to the product itself; it also supports related seasonal formats such as gift boxes, paper bags, hang tags and holiday cards.